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Catalyst Potential

It is important to look beyond the numbers and seek a likely catalysts, which could unlock value, and estimate how long it will take for the catalyst to play out. These events, or Catalyst Potential, reduce risk by narrowing the gap between price and value in a more predictable way. This is particularly important when investing in a low-quality business where time is like a ticking bomb stacked against the company.

Catalyst Potential is a Premium members feature in Redeye Universe.

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Redeye Rating

Viktor Westman

Equity Analyst

viktor.westman@redeye.se

+46854501330

Company Quality

  • 7.0
  • 4.0
  • 8.5
  • 4.0
  • 6.0

Leadership

Exclusive for members
Sensys Gatso har sedan i maj 2015 en ny VD som kommer från en bakgrund inom mjukvara och telekom. Nye VD:n är dock inte obekant med bolaget efter 3 år i styrelsen, vilket minskar osäkerheten i övergången. Bolagets gamle VD blir kvar i bolaget för att bl.a. integrera förvärvet. VD-bytet förefaller logiskt efter förvärvet av Gatso som kommit långt på mjukvarufronten. Efter att flera års kräftgång vändes till stark lönsamhet så kunde inte Gatso-förvärvet, där Sensys köper stabilitet i form av återkommande intäkter, ha tajmats bättre.

Ownership

Exclusive for members

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Profit outlook

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Profitability

Exclusive for members

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Capital Strength

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Key Model Assumptions - The Bear Case

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Key Model Assumptions - The Bull Case

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Key Model Assumptions - The Base Case

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Latest price

Exclusive for members

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Fair Value Range

Last Price
Key Model Assumptions - The Bear Case
Key Model Assumptions - The Bull Case
Key Model Assumptions - The Base Case

Catalyst Potential

Impact

Timeframe

Short
Mid
Long

Company description

Traffic safety company Sensys Gatso was formed when Sensys Traffic acquired its Dutch rival Gatso in summer 2015. The new company is the market leader, with a 25 percent market share in sales of traffic safety systems, particularly for speeding and traffic-light monitoring. A large part of Sensys Gatso’s growth focus will, however, be on continued development of the operating business, which means operating the actual traffic safety systems as well as issuing and administering fines. Read more...
Traffic safety company Sensys Gatso was formed when Sensys Traffic acquired its Dutch rival Gatso in summer 2015. The new company is the market leader, with a 25 percent market share in sales of traffic safety systems, particularly for speeding and traffic-light monitoring. A large part of Sensys Gatso’s growth focus will, however, be on continued development of the operating business, which means operating the actual traffic safety systems as well as issuing and administering fines. The company’s size and new position as the market’s number one are important factors in achieving higher credibility among customers. There are many potential synergies in technology, product portfolios and geographic markets, giving the company an advantage over its competitors. One disadvantage, of course, is that the large acquisition and the synergies may take time to realise.

Founded: Gatso 1958, Sensys Traffic 1982
Locations: Offices in Sweden, the Netherlands, Germany, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates, addressing 75 countries
Listing: Small Cap
Employees: Approximately 160
Pro forma sales 2014: SEK 436 million
Pro forma EBITDA 2014: SEK 65 million
Less...

TODAY

Day High
1.11
1.09
0.02
+ 1.9%
Day Low
1.09
Day Open
1.10
Prev Close
1.07
VWAP
1.1
Volume
249K
Turnover
0.273M
Top Broker
AVA
VWAP
1.1
Avg Volume
1,299K
Avg Turnover
1.414M
Top Brokers
AVA/NON

52 WEEK SUMMARY

Price Range
Beta
n/a
Market Cap
703.2M
Total Return
-56.3%
Trailing P/E
-29.1
Div Yield
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
657.2M
Next Earnings Date
17 May
Stock Exchange
NASDAQ Stockholm

Identify and measure trend strength in stocks with our Momentum tool to identify potential entry and exit signals. The tool provides a set of the most simple but powerful indicators that identify whether a stock is under sell or buy pressure.

Relative Price Strength
Rel Price Chg 3 Months -26.2%
Rel Price Chg 12 Months -61.7%
Volume Trend
Avg Vol 10 vs 60 Days -36.3%
Price vs...
52-Week High -61.6%
50-Day Moving Average -10.9%
200-Day Moving Average -31.9%

Historic pricing of Sensys Gatso Group

Last price: 1.09 SEK

Loading data...

Prev Close [[ prevClose|number:2 ]] SEK Change [[ changeValue|number:2 ]] %
High [[ highValue|number:2 ]] SEK Avg Daily Volume [[ avgVolume|number:0 ]] Shares
Low [[ lowValue|number:2 ]] SEK Avg Daily Turnover [[ graphAvgTurnover|number:2 ]] SEK

Management

Torbjörn Sandberg, CEO
Niki Gatsonides, CFO

Executive Board

Claes Ödman, Chairman of the board
Katarina Staaf
Pia Hofstedt
Kerstin Sjöstrand
Jochem Garritsen
Ingemar Skogö

Last updated: 2017-03-06 Source: Redeye

Major Holders

Owner Equity Votes
Gatso Special Products Bv 17.6%
17.6%
Avanza Pension 5.3%
5.3%
Inger Bergstrand 3.2%
3.2%
Nordnet Pensionsförsäkring 2.6%
2.6%
 AMF Försäkring & Fonder 1.6%
1.6%
Swedbank Försäkring 0.9%
0.9%
 Livförsäkringsbolaget Skandia 0.9%
0.9%
 Lars Rodert 0.9%
0.9%
Clarence Bergman 0.8%
0.8%
 Benny Holger Ivarsson 0.6%
0.6%

Last updated: 2017-03-06 Source: Redeye

Insider transaction summary

Total insider purchases and sales reported

Timeframe Transactions Net Shares
Last 12 Weeks

0 Purchases

+ 0

0 Sales

- 0

Last 24 Weeks

0 Purchases

+ 0

0 Sales

- 0

Most recent insider transactions

Exclusive for members
Report Date Name Position Transaction Shares Chg Est Value (SEK)
2015-12-15 Svensson, Malin ANB Sale + 47 192
2015-12-15 Svensson, Kim ANB Sale + 96 128
2015-12-15 Kvist, Kim ANB Sale + 94 78
2015-12-15 Kvist, Malin ANB Sale + 39 36
2015-12-15 Svensson, Malin ANB Sale + 100 147

Source: Millistream – FI

More
  • Profitability
  • ROE
  • ROCE
  • ROIC
  • EBITDA margin
  • EBIT margin
  • Net margin
  • Per share data (SEK)
  • EPS
  • EPS adj
  • Dividend
  • Net debt
  • Total shares
  • Valuation
  • EV (SEKm)
  • P/E
  • P/E diluted
  • P/Sales
  • EV/Sales
  • EV/EBITDA
  • EV/EBIT
  • P/BV
  • Capital structure
  • Equity ratio
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Net debt (SEKm)
  • Capital employed (SEKm)
  • Capital turnover rate
Previous year Next year
2014
  • 21.4%
  • 27.1%
  • 41.5%
  • 22.1%
  • 21.5%
  • 17.0%
  • 0.05
  • 0.05
  • 0.00
  • -0.15
  • 541.2M
  • 509.4
  • 21.6
  • 21.6
  • 3.7
  • 3.2
  • 14.4
  • 14.7
  • 4.2
  • 79.3%
  • 0.0%
  • -81
  • 61
  • 0.9
2015
  • 15.7%
  • 13.1%
  • 69.3%
  • 19.0%
  • 12.2%
  • 10.4%
  • 0.07
  • 0.07
  • 0.00
  • 0.23
  • 589.4M
  • 781.0
  • 15.5
  • 15.5
  • 1.6
  • 2.0
  • 10.3
  • 16.0
  • 1.7
  • 49.9%
  • 8.3%
  • 138
  • 526
  • 0.5
2016
  • -6.3%
  • -4.3%
  • -3.6%
  • 5.8%
  • -5.3%
  • -5.6%
  • -0.04
  • -0.04
  • 0.00
  • 0.12
  • 657.2M
  • 793.1
  • -29.4
  • -29.4
  • 1.6
  • 1.8
  • 31.3
  • -34.1
  • 1.9
  • 63.5%
  • 9.7%
  • 77
  • 463
  • 0.7
2017E
  • -4.6%
  • -2.9%
  • -2.9%
  • 6.7%
  • -3.6%
  • -4.6%
  • -0.03
  • -0.03
  • 0.00
  • 0.08
  • 657.2M
  • 769.1
  • -41.4
  • -41.4
  • 1.9
  • 2.0
  • 30.5
  • -57.1
  • 1.9
  • 66.2%
  • 8.4%
  • 53
  • 422
  • 0.7
2018E
  • 16.7%
  • 19.2%
  • 15.9%
  • 25.6%
  • 17.7%
  • 13.5%
  • 0.10
  • 0.10
  • 0.00
  • 0.00
  • 657.2M
  • 718.0
  • 10.7
  • 10.7
  • 1.4
  • 1.4
  • 5.6
  • 8.1
  • 1.6
  • 69.2%
  • 6.5%
  • 2
  • 438
  • 0.8
2019E
  • 22.6%
  • 27.3%
  • 25.4%
  • 29.8%
  • 23.0%
  • 17.5%
  • 0.17
  • 0.17
  • 0.00
  • -0.12
  • 657.2M
  • 634.6
  • 6.4
  • 6.4
  • 1.1
  • 1.0
  • 3.4
  • 4.3
  • 1.3
  • 72.6%
  • 5.3%
  • -82
  • 466
  • 0.8
Previous year Next year
    (SEKm)
  • Net sales
  • Total operating costs
  • EBITDA
  • Depreciation
  • Amortization
  • Impairment charges
  • EBIT
  • Share in profits
  • Net financial items
  • Exchange rate dif.
  • Pre-tax profit
  • Tax
  • Net earnings
Previous year Next year
2014
  • 161
  • -125
  • 35
  • -1
  • 0
  • 0
  • 35
  • 0
  • 1
  • 0
  • 35
  • -8
  • 27
2015
  • 398
  • -322
  • 76
  • -27
  • -21
  • 0
  • 49
  • 0
  • -1
  • 0
  • 48
  • -7
  • 42
2016
  • 437
  • -411
  • 25
  • -49
  • -31
  • 0
  • -23
  • 0
  • -7
  • 0
  • -30
  • 6
  • -24
2017E
  • 1
  • 7
  • 10
  • 1
  • 0
  • 9
  • 10
  • 4
  • 6
  • 1
  • 9
  • 5
  • 5
Q1E
  • 9
  • 5
  • 5
  • 2
  • 7
  • 6
  • 2
  • 7
  • 9
  • 3
  • 0
  • 3
  • 5
Q2E
  • 2
  • 1
  • 8
  • 9
  • 0
  • 6
  • 3
  • 3
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2
  • 3
  • 0
Q3E
  • 2
  • 8
  • 4
  • 2
  • 0
  • 2
  • 3
  • 2
  • 10
  • 7
  • 2
  • 7
  • 8
Q4E
  • 1
  • 8
  • 6
  • 6
  • 5
  • 3
  • 0
  • 10
  • 0
  • 0
  • 10
  • 3
  • 7
2017E
  • 7
  • 3
  • 0
  • 2
  • 7
  • 1
  • 4
  • 6
  • 9
  • 0
  • 10
  • 2
  • 7
2018E
  • 3
  • 6
  • 5
  • 0
  • 10
  • 10
  • 10
  • 5
  • 1
  • 10
  • 4
  • 10
  • 0
Q1E
  • 4
  • 1
  • 4
  • 5
  • 8
  • 6
  • 1
  • 4
  • 10
  • 1
  • 5
  • 2
  • 7
Q2E
  • 1
  • 5
  • 2
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2
  • 2
  • 2
  • 5
  • 8
  • 9
Q3E
  • 4
  • 1
  • 8
  • 10
  • 2
  • 9
  • 2
  • 1
  • 2
  • 4
  • 6
  • 6
  • 9
Q4E
  • 10
  • 2
  • 6
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2
  • 6
  • 8
  • 7
  • 0
  • 9
  • 2
  • 7
2018E
  • 5
  • 1
  • 0
  • 5
  • 0
  • 2
  • 6
  • 10
  • 6
  • 5
  • 0
  • 0
  • 10
2019E
  • 4
  • 9
  • 8
  • 4
  • 4
  • 0
  • 10
  • 10
  • 5
  • 2
  • 0
  • 5
  • 4
Previous year Next year
    (SEKm)
  • Assets
  • Current assets
  • Cash in banks
  • Receivables
  • Inventories
  • Other current assets
  • Current assets
  • Fixed assets
  • Tangible assets
  • Associated comp.
  • Investments
  • Goodwill
  • Cap. exp. for dev.
  • O intangible rights
  • O non-current assets
  • Total fixed assets
  • Deferred tax assets
  • Total (assets)
  • Liabilities
  • Current liabilities
  • Short-term debt
  • Accounts payable
  • O current liabilities
  • Current liabilities
  • Long-term debt
  • O long-term liabilities
  • Convertibles
  • Total Liabilities
  • Deferred tax liab
  • Provisions
  • Shareholders' equity
  • Minority interest (BS)
  • Minority & equity
  • Total liab & SE
Previous year Next year
2014
  • 81
  • 34
  • 18
  • 2
  • 135
  • 1
  • 0
  • 0
  • 0
  • 0
  • 0
  • 10
  • 11
  • 31
  • 178
  • 0
  • 11
  • 26
  • 37
  • 0
  • 0
  • 0
  • 37
  • 0
  • 0
  • 141
  • 0
  • 141
  • 178
2015
  • 76
  • 138
  • 75
  • 24
  • 313
  • 38
  • 0
  • 0
  • 237
  • 158
  • 2
  • 0
  • 436
  • 26
  • 776
  • 94
  • 56
  • 58
  • 209
  • 120
  • 0
  • 0
  • 330
  • 44
  • 14
  • 387
  • 0
  • 387
  • 776
2016
  • 22
  • 63
  • 50
  • 24
  • 160
  • 43
  • 0
  • 0
  • 239
  • 113
  • 2
  • 0
  • 398
  • 52
  • 609
  • 19
  • 21
  • 61
  • 101
  • 80
  • 0
  • 0
  • 181
  • 32
  • 9
  • 387
  • 0
  • 387
  • 609
2017E
  • 2
  • 8
  • 8
  • 9
  • 3
  • 5
  • 7
  • 6
  • 9
  • 10
  • 10
  • 0
  • 5
  • 4
  • 3
  • 7
  • 0
  • 10
  • 3
  • 5
  • 1
  • 5
  • 2
  • 5
  • 1
  • 3
  • 9
  • 5
  • 10
2018E
  • 4
  • 9
  • 3
  • 8
  • 10
  • 1
  • 2
  • 10
  • 1
  • 1
  • 0
  • 0
  • 8
  • 7
  • 0
  • 0
  • 9
  • 0
  • 9
  • 3
  • 6
  • 1
  • 7
  • 1
  • 1
  • 6
  • 2
  • 8
  • 2
2019E
  • 8
  • 2
  • 2
  • 5
  • 1
  • 9
  • 5
  • 10
  • 0
  • 10
  • 7
  • 2
  • 7
  • 2
  • 5
  • 5
  • 1
  • 6
  • 9
  • 5
  • 8
  • 5
  • 2
  • 0
  • 7
  • 7
  • 4
  • 8
  • 4
Previous year Next year
    (SEKm)
  • Net sales
  • Total operating costs
  • Depreciations total
  • EBIT
  • Taxes on EBIT
  • NOPLAT
  • Depreciation
  • Gross cash flow
  • Change in WC
  • Gross CAPEX
  • Free cash flow
Previous year Next year
2014
  • 161
  • -125
  • -1
  • 35
  • -8
  • 27
  • 1
  • 28
  • -2
  • -2
  • 31
2015
  • 398
  • -322
  • -27
  • 49
  • -7
  • 42
  • 27
  • 69
  • -104
  • -452
  • -423
2016
  • 437
  • -411
  • -49
  • -23
  • 4
  • -19
  • 49
  • 30
  • 67
  • -10
  • 44
2017E
  • 7
  • 0
  • 6
  • 4
  • 7
  • 10
  • 0
  • 9
  • 2
  • 0
  • 4
2018E
  • 3
  • 4
  • 7
  • 3
  • 7
  • 0
  • 8
  • 5
  • 1
  • 2
  • 2
2019E
  • 4
  • 0
  • 6
  • 1
  • 7
  • 7
  • 5
  • 8
  • 6
  • 3
  • 7
Previous year Next year
More