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Catalyst Potential

It is important to look beyond the numbers and seek a likely catalysts, which could unlock value, and estimate how long it will take for the catalyst to play out. These events, or Catalyst Potential, reduce risk by narrowing the gap between price and value in a more predictable way. This is particularly important when investing in a low-quality business where time is like a ticking bomb stacked against the company.

Catalyst Potential is a Premium members feature in Redeye Universe.

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Redeye Rating

Viktor Westman

Equity Analyst

viktor.westman@redeye.se

+46854501330

Company Quality

  • 5.0
  • 7.0
  • 7.5
  • 0.0
  • 2.0

Leadership

Exclusive for members
The CEO is the co-founder of Neonode and inventor of the technology. Overall, Management and Board have been long in the organization or have extensive experience from adjacent industries. Compensation levels are moderate but we feel that the exercise prices in the warrant programs are a bit too generous. Management has earlier missed its guidance on several occasions causing stock market mistrust but has managed to successfully pivot from e-readers to automotive and printing, demonstrating years of consistent hard work and correctly focused efforts in order to be qualified. The large investments is thus now about to pay off. All in all, the factors mentioned are reassuring regarding the tough but sound business model shift from licenses to modules.

Ownership

Exclusive for members

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Profit outlook

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Profitability

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Capital Strength

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Key Model Assumptions - The Bear Case

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Key Model Assumptions - The Bull Case

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Key Model Assumptions - The Base Case

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Latest price

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Fair Value Range (USD)
Last price not available

Last Price
Key Model Assumptions - The Bear Case
Key Model Assumptions - The Bull Case
Key Model Assumptions - The Base Case

Catalyst Potential

Impact

Timeframe

Short
Mid
Long

Company description

First and foremost, Neonode, in a broader perspective, not only works with technology for touch displays but with human interaction in numerous ways. It is therefore important not to pigeonhole Neonode into solely touch display applications. Neonode pursues a multimodal approach and will integrate different types of sensors on its platform and use its own production technology and distribution network to be the front end. Read more...
First and foremost, Neonode, in a broader perspective, not only works with technology for touch displays but with human interaction in numerous ways. It is therefore important not to pigeonhole Neonode into solely touch display applications. Neonode pursues a multimodal approach and will integrate different types of sensors on its platform and use its own production technology and distribution network to be the front end. In addition, Neonode is surface independent, meaning it does not even need displays or glass. The new business model for Neonode’s touch technology will be manufacturing and selling of hardware modules instead of just licenses. The modules together with the ramp-up of new car and printer models on the won platforms is the key parts of the growth strategy. Besides its many technology competitive advantages Neonode has wide barriers to entry in its automotive focus (see further the investment case section.

Listing: Founded in 2002 and listed on NASDAQ since 2007
Locations: Headquarter in Stockholm, Sweden but global sales reach
N.o. employees: Around 60
2015 figures: Sales and EBIT of USD 11 million and USD -8 million, respectively
Less...

Management

Thomas Eriksson, CEO
Lars Lindqvist, CFO

Executive Board

Per Bystedt, Chairman of the board
Mats Dahlin
Per Löfgren
Thomas Eriksson
John Reardon

Last updated: 2016-11-28 Source: Redeye

Major Holders

Owner Equity Votes
AWM INVESTMENT COMPANY INC 9.2%
9.2%
BYSTEDT PER 7.2%
7.2%
ERIKSSON THOMAS 4.8%
4.8%
ROYCE AND ASSOCIATES LLC 4.8%
4.8%
FIDELITY MANAGEMENT & RESEARCH 4.7%
4.7%
VANGUARD GROUP 3.3%
3.3%
DAHLIN MATS 2.7%
2.7%
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 2.6%
2.6%
BLACKROCK 2.6%
2.6%
ROYCE & ASSOCIATES INC 1.9%
1.9%

Last updated: 2016-11-28 Source: Redeye

  • Profitability
  • ROE
  • ROCE
  • ROIC
  • EBITDA margin
  • EBIT margin
  • Net margin
  • Per share data (USD)
  • EPS
  • EPS adj
  • Dividend
  • Net debt
  • Total shares
  • Valuation
  • EV (USDm)
  • P/E
  • P/E diluted
  • P/Sales
  • EV/Sales
  • EV/EBITDA
  • EV/EBIT
  • P/BV
  • Capital structure
  • Equity ratio
  • Debt/equity ratio
  • Net debt (USDm)
  • Capital employed (USDm)
  • Capital turnover rate
Previous year Next year
2014
  • -295.5%
  • -295.4%
  • 575.2%
  • -295.1%
  • -299.4%
  • -299.8%
  • -0.36
  • -0.36
  • 0.00
  • -0.16
  • 39.5M
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • 38.0%
  • 0.0%
  • -6
  • -3
  • 0.6
2015
  • -299.1%
  • -301.6%
  • 269.2%
  • -66.3%
  • -69.2%
  • -68.8%
  • -0.19
  • -0.19
  • 0.00
  • -0.07
  • 41.2M
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • 31.1%
  • 0.0%
  • -3
  • -1
  • 1.9
2016E
  • -184.4%
  • -195.2%
  • 466.3%
  • -51.6%
  • -53.1%
  • -51.0%
  • -0.12
  • -0.12
  • 0.00
  • -0.11
  • 48.1M
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • 43.1%
  • 0.0%
  • -5
  • -1
  • 1.1
2017E
  • 52.5%
  • 53.1%
  • -389.7%
  • 14.3%
  • 13.6%
  • 13.6%
  • 0.08
  • 0.08
  • 0.00
  • -0.21
  • 56.8M
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • 58.2%
  • 0.0%
  • -12
  • 1
  • 1.5
2018E
  • 88.2%
  • 88.6%
  • 1,453.5%
  • 29.5%
  • 28.9%
  • 28.9%
  • 0.38
  • 0.38
  • 0.00
  • -0.51
  • 56.8M
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • 64.1%
  • 0.0%
  • -29
  • 6
  • 1.4
2019E
  • 74.3%
  • 74.4%
  • 682.8%
  • 35.5%
  • 34.5%
  • 34.5%
  • 0.73
  • 0.73
  • 0.00
  • -1.16
  • 56.8M
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • 71.3%
  • 0.0%
  • -66
  • 11
  • 1.1
Previous year Next year
    (USDm)
  • Net sales
  • Total operating costs
  • EBITDA
  • Depreciation
  • Amortization
  • Impairment charges
  • EBIT
  • Share in profits
  • Net financial items
  • Exchange rate dif.
  • Pre-tax profit
  • Tax
  • Net earnings
Previous year Next year
2014
  • 4.7
  • -18.7
  • -14.0
  • -0.2
  • 0.0
  • 0.0
  • -14.2
  • 0.0
  • -0.0
  • 0.0
  • -14.2
  • 0.0
  • -14.2
2015
  • 11.1
  • -18.5
  • -7.4
  • -0.3
  • 0.0
  • 0.0
  • -7.7
  • 0.0
  • -0.0
  • 0.0
  • -7.7
  • 0.1
  • -7.6
2016E
  • 1.0
  • 0.0
  • 8.0
  • 7.0
  • 4.0
  • 1.0
  • 4.0
  • 3.0
  • 4.0
  • 6.0
  • 6.0
  • 3.0
  • 1.0
2017E
  • 6.0
  • 3.0
  • 4.0
  • 7.0
  • 8.0
  • 1.0
  • 2.0
  • 1.0
  • 10.0
  • 5.0
  • 0.0
  • 4.0
  • 7.0
2018E
  • 2.0
  • 4.0
  • 7.0
  • 1.0
  • 4.0
  • 2.0
  • 0.0
  • 9.0
  • 6.0
  • 3.0
  • 2.0
  • 5.0
  • 9.0
2019E
  • 3.0
  • 3.0
  • 6.0
  • 9.0
  • 0.0
  • 5.0
  • 2.0
  • 10.0
  • 9.0
  • 6.0
  • 9.0
  • 8.0
  • 1.0
Previous year Next year
    (USDm)
  • Assets
  • Current assets
  • Cash in banks
  • Receivables
  • Inventories
  • Other current assets
  • Current assets
  • Fixed assets
  • Tangible assets
  • Associated comp.
  • Investments
  • Goodwill
  • Cap. exp. for dev.
  • O intangible rights
  • O non-current assets
  • Total fixed assets
  • Deferred tax assets
  • Total (assets)
  • Liabilities
  • Current liabilities
  • Short-term debt
  • Accounts payable
  • O current liabilities
  • Current liabilities
  • Long-term debt
  • O long-term liabilities
  • Convertibles
  • Total Liabilities
  • Deferred tax liab
  • Provisions
  • Shareholders' equity
  • Minority interest (BS)
  • Minority & equity
  • Total liab & SE
Previous year Next year
2014
  • 6.1
  • 1.1
  • 0.0
  • 0.7
  • 7.9
  • 0.7
  • 0.0
  • 0.0
  • 0.0
  • 0.0
  • 0.0
  • 0.0
  • 0.7
  • 0.0
  • 8.6
  • 0.0
  • 0.6
  • 4.4
  • 5.0
  • 0.0
  • 0.4
  • 0.0
  • 5.3
  • 0.0
  • 0.0
  • 3.3
  • 0.0
  • 3.3
  • 8.6
2015
  • 3.1
  • 1.3
  • 0.0
  • 0.9
  • 5.3
  • 0.6
  • 0.0
  • 0.0
  • 0.0
  • 0.0
  • 0.0
  • 0.0
  • 0.6
  • 0.0
  • 5.9
  • 0.0
  • 1.0
  • 2.8
  • 3.8
  • 0.0
  • 0.3
  • 0.0
  • 4.1
  • 0.0
  • 0.0
  • 1.8
  • 0.0
  • 1.8
  • 5.9
2016E
  • 6.0
  • 6.0
  • 0.0
  • 9.0
  • 4.0
  • 1.0
  • 2.0
  • 5.0
  • 1.0
  • 7.0
  • 3.0
  • 3.0
  • 8.0
  • 4.0
  • 10.0
  • 0.0
  • 8.0
  • 10.0
  • 10.0
  • 9.0
  • 2.0
  • 1.0
  • 0.0
  • 3.0
  • 2.0
  • 2.0
  • 8.0
  • 10.0
  • 9.0
2017E
  • 6.0
  • 5.0
  • 9.0
  • 5.0
  • 6.0
  • 6.0
  • 1.0
  • 7.0
  • 5.0
  • 7.0
  • 0.0
  • 5.0
  • 6.0
  • 9.0
  • 4.0
  • 9.0
  • 3.0
  • 7.0
  • 1.0
  • 10.0
  • 2.0
  • 2.0
  • 4.0
  • 7.0
  • 4.0
  • 6.0
  • 7.0
  • 10.0
  • 0.0
2018E
  • 5.0
  • 7.0
  • 0.0
  • 1.0
  • 4.0
  • 6.0
  • 5.0
  • 8.0
  • 6.0
  • 6.0
  • 0.0
  • 6.0
  • 8.0
  • 10.0
  • 5.0
  • 8.0
  • 10.0
  • 2.0
  • 2.0
  • 0.0
  • 2.0
  • 1.0
  • 3.0
  • 5.0
  • 7.0
  • 8.0
  • 10.0
  • 9.0
  • 4.0
2019E
  • 6.0
  • 8.0
  • 4.0
  • 3.0
  • 10.0
  • 0.0
  • 2.0
  • 9.0
  • 10.0
  • 8.0
  • 3.0
  • 10.0
  • 4.0
  • 4.0
  • 8.0
  • 3.0
  • 2.0
  • 8.0
  • 3.0
  • 3.0
  • 8.0
  • 7.0
  • 9.0
  • 9.0
  • 3.0
  • 1.0
  • 0.0
  • 6.0
  • 4.0
Previous year Next year
    (USDm)
  • Net sales
  • Total operating costs
  • Depreciations total
  • EBIT
  • Taxes on EBIT
  • NOPLAT
  • Depreciation
  • Gross cash flow
  • Change in WC
  • Gross CAPEX
  • Free cash flow
Previous year Next year
2014
  • 4.7
  • -18.7
  • -0.2
  • -14.2
  • 0.0
  • -14.2
  • 0.2
  • -14.0
  • 0.3
  • -0.5
  • -13.8
2015
  • 11.1
  • -18.5
  • -0.3
  • -7.7
  • 0.0
  • -7.7
  • 0.3
  • -7.4
  • -1.6
  • -0.3
  • -9.2
2016E
  • 6.0
  • 9.0
  • 7.0
  • 8.0
  • 2.0
  • 3.0
  • 1.0
  • 3.0
  • 4.0
  • 6.0
  • 5.0
2017E
  • 10.0
  • 1.0
  • 7.0
  • 5.0
  • 7.0
  • 5.0
  • 6.0
  • 6.0
  • 4.0
  • 7.0
  • 5.0
2018E
  • 6.0
  • 10.0
  • 10.0
  • 0.0
  • 0.0
  • 9.0
  • 1.0
  • 10.0
  • 6.0
  • 3.0
  • 8.0
2019E
  • 8.0
  • 7.0
  • 7.0
  • 0.0
  • 0.0
  • 10.0
  • 9.0
  • 0.0
  • 3.0
  • 10.0
  • 8.0
Previous year Next year
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