A glitch, is it only temporary?

Research Note

2016-12-08

10:42

Fingeprint Cards today makes another downward adjustment to its 2016 guidance after having slashed the upper end of the guidance range by SEK 800 million six weeks ago. The market reacts by trading down the share some 11 percent. At the same time, the company announced its 2017 guidance. It expects revenues of SEK 7.5-9.5 billion and an EBIT-margin in excess of 35 percent. The mid-point of the guidance was in line with consensus but about a billion SEK below our 2017 estimate. What we see happening is that the market is losing faith in FPC. At the current price FPC trades at an EV/EBIT multiple of around 7 for 2016 and somewhere between 5.5 and 7 on the guidance for 2017. Yesterday we made downward revisions to our estimates and to our fair value in our base case. Our fair value prior to the new guidance for the current year and the next year was SEK 189. Even though we will have to make additional downward adjustments, we believe the share is trading at a large discount compared to the fair value, we see an upside well above 100 percent.

JW

Joel Westerström

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