Fingerprint Cards Q3 preview – Smaller sensors point towards lower ASP and GM over 50 percent

Research Note

2016-10-21

14:01

We remain optimistic regarding FPC’s prospects in the short- and longer term and we believe the market is wrong in its view of FPC as a one-trick pony. The FPC share is down 25 percent for the year and 16 percent the last month and currently trades around SEK 87 at an EV/S multiple of 1.9 and an EV/EBIT multiple of 4.3 based on our 2017 estimates. Prior to the upcoming Q3 report we have adjusted our estimates to reflect an increased share of sales from smaller sensors. We expect revenues of SEK 1.829 billion and EBIT of SEK 800 million – hence we believe FPC will report revenues 6 percent below consensus but beat EBIT estimates by 3 percent. Our fair value ranges from SEK 65 in our bear case to SEK 330 in our bull case with a fair value of SEK 209 in our base case.

Joel Westerström

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