AVTECH: On Track – Awaiting Finalizations of Contracts

Research Update

2015-02-16

13:02

Total revenues came in at 14.5 versus our estimate of 14.7 MSEK for the full year. Q4 sales came in at 4.6 MSEK versus our estimate of 4.8 MSEK. EBIT being a bit worse for Q4 than expected at -1.6 MSEK versus our estimate of -0.4 MSEK. Thus, AVTECH reported a quarter largely in line with our estimates. However, the current bundling of consultancy and Aventus NowCast revenues does not allow interpretations of the revenues from the Aventus NowCast division apart from management commentary. It is estimated revenues from consultancy projects are significantly less due to Dubai finalization but compensated with a revenue ramp up of Aventus NowCast revenues. Thus we believe our 1.3 MSEK related to the Aventus NowCast division is largely in line with our estimates. However, disclosure of revenues can be improved especially in this initial stage which there no is reason for as revenues will be made apparent anyway in the future. The focus of the company must be to secure future contracts. It’s pivotal that the company will deliver new finalizations the coming quarters to fulfill the set expectations. With the reference customer SWA and confirmation of Etihad, AVTECH should be set for further contract expansion. No particular news regarding Etihad in the report but we expect closing of the contract soon. Along with that we expect that there is demand for cruise/ascent solutions from customers. The likely first candidate is SWA for its cruise solution as the company mentioned that tests and technical activities were being performed on existing contracts. Along with that simultaneous discussions with low-cost carriers are also likely closing in for finalization selling it as a full flight solution directly or initially as a descent solution. Confirming this notion the company stated that quarter tests and technical activities were performed for several airlines according to management as a step to receive new contracts and extend existing. However, if we do not receive word by finalization of another contract beyond SWA and Etihad by mid may – concern for fully achieving the expected trajectory should be addressed. The actual reasons for this must then be further investigated and set in to contrast whether this changes the fundamental investment case of AVTECH. However, Redeye assess that the company has a strong product within the full-flight operations segment at the moment with favorable offering and trustworthy savings for any given airlines. The company has a solid financial position at year end with cash and cash equivalent amounting to 47 MSEK allowing the planned investments and provides a cushion the coming years. The redemption of the preference shares after the annual general meeting in September will result in a 3.9 million SEK outflow. The revenue trend will be made evident the coming quarters. Management remains confident in its 600000 flights by year end, and profitability by Q3, versus our approximation of 400000 flights including cruise, descent and ascent. Due to the largely inline figures for the quarter and the operational progress being largely as planned we decide to leave the fair value of the share unchanged. The initial analysis has been updated with regards to actualized numbers for 2014, no other changes has been performed.

PS

Philip Skogby

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